When creating a platform it’s worth thinking about which use-case you want to focus on. Metaculus seems to me like it does a good job at public predictions.
When it comes to prediction under friends I would both want the ability to share a prediction with specific people and in the past we found software that calculates the fair payoffs when either side wins the bet to be useful.
For predictions within institutions, role and access management is important.
For personal predictions, UI to quickly enter data is essential.
There are four kinds of predictions:
Public predictions
Predictions under friends
Predictions within institutions
Personal predictions
When creating a platform it’s worth thinking about which use-case you want to focus on. Metaculus seems to me like it does a good job at public predictions.
When it comes to prediction under friends I would both want the ability to share a prediction with specific people and in the past we found software that calculates the fair payoffs when either side wins the bet to be useful.
For predictions within institutions, role and access management is important.
For personal predictions, UI to quickly enter data is essential.