In support of the inside view and a counter to modest epistemology

This might have already been said in in­ad­e­quate equil­ibria how­ever it was definitely not clear enough for me to un­der­stand it from their so it’s not pla­gia­rism. The out­side asks, what ev­i­dence do you have that you are right and the other per­son is wrong. The fact that you think your right does not con­sti­tute ev­i­dence be­cause he also thinks he’s right.

My counter is that their are differ­ent lev­els of sure­ness about be­ing cor­rect. I can be pretty sure or ab­solutely cer­tain. And the more sure I am of some­thing the more likely it is to be true. So if I knew that I was more sure than the other per­son I know that it is more likely that I am right and he is wrong. How­ever how do I know that I’m more sure than he is on this topic. The an­swer is sim­ple, you don’t. How­ever you don’t need to know that. Let’s say that if you are more sure than you are 100 per­cent cor­rect how­ever if your ex­actly as sure than you are 5o per­cent likely to be cor­rect. And you are 50 per­cent cer­tain that you are more sure than he is. Then it is 75 per­cent likely that you are cor­rect.

Even if you are both the same sure about it you can look at how of­ten are you this sure and how of­ten is he that sure. Let’s say your this sure 1 out of 50 times and he is this sure 1 out of 30 times then its more likely that you are cor­rect be­cause you be­ing sure con­sti­tutes more ev­i­dence than his be­ing sure.

This ar­gu­ment is at its most pow­er­ful when you con­serve it for those few times that you’re ab­solutely sure. Where your at the most pos­si­ble clar­ity about a thing. Be­cause when that hap­pens you are way more likely to be cor­rect since you are the most pos­si­bly sure and its re­ally un­likely he is as sure as you or even if he is its re­ally un­likely that he is rarely as sure as this so its way more likely that you are correct

I’m my ex­pe­rience this feel­ing of ab­solute cor­rect­ness rarely man­i­fests but when it does i’ve always been cor­rect ( I had these ar­gu­ments be­fore I learned any­thing about logic or philos­o­phy and af­ter I learned a lit­tle I found out that I had main­stream views so that’s my cor­rect met­ric). Its a feel­ing of ab­solute clar­ity, in the mo­ment you un­der­stand it perfectly and you feel the con­fu­sion and lack of un­der­stand­ing of your op­po­nent.

From here I usu­ally find things that I set in stone are and if you dis­agree with them I lower you in my out­side cal­ibra­tion but that is for an­other post.