You forgot to subscript; I think you meant Eliezer_1998, who had just turned old enough to vote, believed in ontologically basic human-external morality, and was still babbling about Moore’s Law in unquestioning imitation of his elders. I really get offended when people compare the two of us.
Growing up on the Internet is like walking around with your baby pictures stapled to your forehead.
I also consider it an extremely basic fallacy and extremely annoying, to lump together “people who predict AI arriving in 10 years” and “people who predict AI arriving at some unknown point in the future” into the same reference class so that the previous failure of the former class of predictions is an argument for the failure of the latter class, that is, since some AI scientists have overpromised in the short run AI must be physically impossible in the long run. After all, it’s the same charge of negative affect in both cases, right?
After reading your comment like 20 times I still have no idea what you object to. Your timeframes might have grown more flexible since 1998, but you’re still making statements about the future of technology, so my reference class includes you. Personally I think AI is physically possible, but something else will happen instead, like with flying cars.
Every reader is encouraged to Google on their own for past announcements by Doug Lenat, Ben Goertzel, Eliezer Yudkowsky (those are actually the heroes of the bunch), or other people that I’m afraid to name at the moment.
to lump together “people who predict AI arriving in 10 years” and “people who predict AI arriving at some unknown point in the future”
My bad, I thought you belonged to the first group (replacing 10 with <=50). Perhaps you should consider joining it anyway, because the second group is making an unfalsifiable prediction.
You forgot to subscript; I think you meant Eliezer_1998, who had just turned old enough to vote, believed in ontologically basic human-external morality, and was still babbling about Moore’s Law in unquestioning imitation of his elders. I really get offended when people compare the two of us.
Growing up on the Internet is like walking around with your baby pictures stapled to your forehead.
I also consider it an extremely basic fallacy and extremely annoying, to lump together “people who predict AI arriving in 10 years” and “people who predict AI arriving at some unknown point in the future” into the same reference class so that the previous failure of the former class of predictions is an argument for the failure of the latter class, that is, since some AI scientists have overpromised in the short run AI must be physically impossible in the long run. After all, it’s the same charge of negative affect in both cases, right?
After reading your comment like 20 times I still have no idea what you object to. Your timeframes might have grown more flexible since 1998, but you’re still making statements about the future of technology, so my reference class includes you. Personally I think AI is physically possible, but something else will happen instead, like with flying cars.
Which reference to you calls for that subscript?
Presumably.
My bad, I thought you belonged to the first group (replacing 10 with <=50). Perhaps you should consider joining it anyway, because the second group is making an unfalsifiable prediction.