Probabilities can be empirically wrong, sure, but I find it weird to say that they’re “not probabilities” until they’re calibrated. If you imagine 20 scenarios in this class, and your brain says “I expect to be wrong in one of those”, that just is a probability straight up.
(This may come down to frequency vs belief interpretations of probability, but I think saying that beliefs aren’t probabilistic at all needs defending separately.)
Probabilities can be empirically wrong, sure, but I find it weird to say that they’re “not probabilities” until they’re calibrated. If you imagine 20 scenarios in this class, and your brain says “I expect to be wrong in one of those”, that just is a probability straight up.
(This may come down to frequency vs belief interpretations of probability, but I think saying that beliefs aren’t probabilistic at all needs defending separately.)