the long run equilibrium of the earth-originating civilization
(this isn’t centrally engaging with your shortform but:) it could be interesting to think about whether there will be some sort of equilibrium or development will meaningfully continue (until the heat death of the universe or until whatever other bound of that kind holds up or maybe just forever)[1]
I’m pretty sure there is such a thing as technological maturity, in which either, there are knowably no new discoveries to be found, or there are more innovations to discover, but the expected value of doing the search to find those innovations doesn’t beat opportunity cost of just exploiting known mechanisms.
(this isn’t centrally engaging with your shortform but:) it could be interesting to think about whether there will be some sort of equilibrium or development will meaningfully continue (until the heat death of the universe or until whatever other bound of that kind holds up or maybe just forever)[1]
i write about this question here
I’m pretty sure there is such a thing as technological maturity, in which either, there are knowably no new discoveries to be found, or there are more innovations to discover, but the expected value of doing the search to find those innovations doesn’t beat opportunity cost of just exploiting known mechanisms.