I’m pretty pessimistic about GivingTuesday persisting as a way for EAs to have a large counterfactually valid impact. “Free money for sufficiently quick and organized folks” won’t last.
I agree, which is why the large benefit of getting one’s donations matched compared to the tax benefits of bunching provides another (stronger) reason (in addition to the value drift reason) for people like the GWWC-donor in your original post to donate this year (on Giving Tuesday) rather than bunch by taking the standard deduction this year and giving in 2020 (or later) instead. (This is the implication I had in mind when I wrote my first comment; sorry for not writing it out then.)
I myself am in this situation. As such:
If it turns out that Facebook doesn’t offer an exploitable donation match this year, then I plan to not donate and take the standard deduction instead.
In the hypothetical world where free matching money was guaranteed to always be available every year, I would also plan to not donate this year and would take the standard deduction instead.
However, as seems most likely to be the case, if Facebook does offer an exploitable match this Giving Tuesday and it seems significantly less likely that I could get matched again in 2020 (as we both agree seems to be the case) then I will donate this Giving Tuesday to take advantage of the free money while it lasts.
I’m pretty pessimistic about GivingTuesday persisting as a way for EAs to have a large counterfactually valid impact. “Free money for sufficiently quick and organized folks” won’t last.
I agree, which is why the large benefit of getting one’s donations matched compared to the tax benefits of bunching provides another (stronger) reason (in addition to the value drift reason) for people like the GWWC-donor in your original post to donate this year (on Giving Tuesday) rather than bunch by taking the standard deduction this year and giving in 2020 (or later) instead. (This is the implication I had in mind when I wrote my first comment; sorry for not writing it out then.)
I myself am in this situation. As such:
If it turns out that Facebook doesn’t offer an exploitable donation match this year, then I plan to not donate and take the standard deduction instead.
In the hypothetical world where free matching money was guaranteed to always be available every year, I would also plan to not donate this year and would take the standard deduction instead.
However, as seems most likely to be the case, if Facebook does offer an exploitable match this Giving Tuesday and it seems significantly less likely that I could get matched again in 2020 (as we both agree seems to be the case) then I will donate this Giving Tuesday to take advantage of the free money while it lasts.