In my experience even smart people need a bit of conversational back and forth to understand the setup for Newcomb’s problem, so I’m a bit skeptical that most survey respondents can grok it from a concise description.
I wonder how the results would be different if a human or AI did enough back and forth with each participant to make sure they understand the setup.
It might be easier to condition on comprehension questions. “How much money do you get if the wizard predicts you will take only the opaque box, and you take the opaque box?” Probably under 25% would get all four comprehension questions right
In my experience even smart people need a bit of conversational back and forth to understand the setup for Newcomb’s problem, so I’m a bit skeptical that most survey respondents can grok it from a concise description.
I wonder how the results would be different if a human or AI did enough back and forth with each participant to make sure they understand the setup.
It might be easier to condition on comprehension questions. “How much money do you get if the wizard predicts you will take only the opaque box, and you take the opaque box?” Probably under 25% would get all four comprehension questions right