When someone says that they believe X but can’t explain why, I do update. As for how I update, it isn’t much more than querying my intuition to see what they’re track record is in similar contexts.
This is certainly what most people do in fact, but it is a bad idea, because it means that normally a person who hears something he disagrees with simply ignores it, even when there are good reasons not to do so.
This is certainly what most people do in fact, but it is a bad idea, because it means that normally a person who hears something he disagrees with simply ignores it, even when there are good reasons not to do so.
In the moment where I hear someone I consider to be a programming expert saying that ‘programming needs system I to be done well’, beliefs in my brain shift pretty automatically in that direction without any direct intervention. I don’t think I have even the option to not let it affect my beliefs.
If that would be true a person with social anxiety could simply overwrite the beliefs that make them uncomfortable because they think other people are judging them.
Yes, it’s a learnable skill. Stage hypnotists exist.
In stage hypnosis people don’t change their beliefs themselves but get lead by another person to change their beliefs.
More to the point, I wasn’t focused on what’s theoretically possible but what we do in day to day interactions. In day to day interactions we don’t simply write new beliefs directly into our minds.
Let’s suppose that you had reason to believe that the sky is blue, but found yourself believing that it was green. This would not stop you from telling people, “I found out that the sky is blue,” and giving the reasons that show that it is blue (since we are assuming you had reason to believe that it is blue.) Likewise, suppose someone comes up to you and says, “I would like to bet you $100 that the sky is green and propose the following test...” No matter how you feel about the color of the sky, you are perfectly free to accept the bet and win if the sky is blue.
So in other words, as I said, you have direct write access to pretty much everything that matters about a belief: you can say it is true, argue for it, and act on it.
No matter how you feel about the color of the sky, you are perfectly free to accept the bet and win if the sky is blue.
“perfectly free” basically supposes that you have free will. In practice human’s like to believe that they have free will but they don’t behave that way in experimental settings.
As long as you think about thought experiments with your usual intuition that presupposes free will you don’t get to the substance of the argument and understand how beliefs work in practice.
You can argue that we don’t have direct write access to anything; but if you want to describe the facts with “we have direct write access to some things,” then it is reasonable to include most aspects of our beliefs in that statement.
Let’s say you attempt to think nothing for 5 minutes. Will you succeed with that because you are free enough to do so? >99% of people won’t.
On the other hand if I want to rise my right arm I can do that successfully nearly every time.
When it comes to changing beliefs, newspaper corrections are a good example.
Alice reads a newspaper saying ‘Bob is evil’. The next week the newspaper writes: “We were wrong, Bob isn’t an evil at all”. Does that mean that Alice is now less likely to believe that ‘Bob is evil’?
That’s no automatic effect. Being remembered of the old belief that ‘Bob is evil’ can strenghens the belief. That’s a fact that you have to take into account when you want to think about how belief change works, but that isn’t in the mental model that assumes that people simply do free will decisions to change their beliefs.
“Think nothing for 5 minutes” is not like “raise my right arm.” It is like “hold my arm so still for 5 minutes than a careful observer will not even notice a jitter.” It is unlikely that anyone can do either of those things on demand. But I can refrain from most complete thoughts for 5 minutes, and from large motions of my arm. My control over my thoughts is actually very similar to my control over my arm. You find dissimilarity because you are comparing the wrong things.
So, you pick an example with no emotional valence. But let’s suppose instead that I have reason to believe that I’m perfectly safe, but find myself believing that someone is going to kill me in my sleep. This would not stop me from telling people I’m perfectly safe, or from giving the reasons that show I’m perfectly safe, or from accepting a similar $100 bet. It might, however, prevent me from getting a good night’s sleep.
Is that not a thing that matters about the belief that I’m safe?
I expected ChristianKI might say that you would be lying, if you tell people that the sky is blue in my hypothetical situation. He hasn’t responded, so maybe he does not think this. In any case, I would deny that it is a lie to tell people something that you know you have good reasons to believe, however you feel about it when you do it.
In any case, when I first made the claim, I said that we have direct write access to almost everything important about a belief, not everything important simply. And in particular, we don’t have have write access to how we feel about them. I agree that could be something important, but it is relatively minor compared to all sorts of other things that result from beliefs, like external relationships and real world actions.
In theory we could describe this same situation in two different ways: by saying, “I can’t control my beliefs,” and then we would be implicitly identifying our beliefs with those feelings. Or by saying, “I can control my beliefs,” and then we would be implicitly identifying our beliefs with a pattern of speaking, acting, and consciously controlled thinking. It is pointless to ask which of these is true: either could be true, if that’s what we meant by a belief. The question is which is a better idea for practical purposes. And it seems to me better to say, “I can control my beliefs,” because saying the other thing tends to make us forget many of our options (for example winning good bets.)
Also, another advantage is that in practice what I am suggesting tends to modify the feelings as well, although indirectly, and not always completely.
When someone says that they believe X but can’t explain why, I do update. As for how I update, it isn’t much more than querying my intuition to see what they’re track record is in similar contexts.
What does that mean in practice? What mental operation do you do?
I say, “X is more likely to be true”.
You mean you move your mouth and those words come out?
(I apologize if I’m not understanding your point/question.)
As for what words I actually speak, sometimes I say something along the lines of along the lines of “It’s ok, your intuition still means something”.
I asked what you do and you said something that’s not what you do.
In my model most people don’t explicitely update at all but let their brains shift beliefs in the way the brain is accustomed to do.
This is certainly what most people do in fact, but it is a bad idea, because it means that normally a person who hears something he disagrees with simply ignores it, even when there are good reasons not to do so.
In the moment where I hear someone I consider to be a programming expert saying that ‘programming needs system I to be done well’, beliefs in my brain shift pretty automatically in that direction without any direct intervention. I don’t think I have even the option to not let it affect my beliefs.
Fine, but that could be because you had no strong opinion on the matter in the first place opposed to that, or because you are unusual.
I don’t think so. It’s very normal human process that beliefs change when you hear a person you consider authoritative making an argument.
Beliefs get mostly changed by system I and we don’t even have system II direct write access to them.
I disagree; I think we have direct write access to nearly everything that matters about our beliefs.
If that would be true a person with social anxiety could simply overwrite the beliefs that make them uncomfortable because they think other people are judging them.
Yes, it’s a learnable skill. Stage hypnotists exist.
In stage hypnosis people don’t change their beliefs themselves but get lead by another person to change their beliefs.
More to the point, I wasn’t focused on what’s theoretically possible but what we do in day to day interactions. In day to day interactions we don’t simply write new beliefs directly into our minds.
Let’s suppose that you had reason to believe that the sky is blue, but found yourself believing that it was green. This would not stop you from telling people, “I found out that the sky is blue,” and giving the reasons that show that it is blue (since we are assuming you had reason to believe that it is blue.) Likewise, suppose someone comes up to you and says, “I would like to bet you $100 that the sky is green and propose the following test...” No matter how you feel about the color of the sky, you are perfectly free to accept the bet and win if the sky is blue.
So in other words, as I said, you have direct write access to pretty much everything that matters about a belief: you can say it is true, argue for it, and act on it.
“perfectly free” basically supposes that you have free will. In practice human’s like to believe that they have free will but they don’t behave that way in experimental settings. As long as you think about thought experiments with your usual intuition that presupposes free will you don’t get to the substance of the argument and understand how beliefs work in practice.
You can argue that we don’t have direct write access to anything; but if you want to describe the facts with “we have direct write access to some things,” then it is reasonable to include most aspects of our beliefs in that statement.
Let’s say you attempt to think nothing for 5 minutes. Will you succeed with that because you are free enough to do so? >99% of people won’t. On the other hand if I want to rise my right arm I can do that successfully nearly every time.
When it comes to changing beliefs, newspaper corrections are a good example. Alice reads a newspaper saying ‘Bob is evil’. The next week the newspaper writes: “We were wrong, Bob isn’t an evil at all”. Does that mean that Alice is now less likely to believe that ‘Bob is evil’? That’s no automatic effect. Being remembered of the old belief that ‘Bob is evil’ can strenghens the belief. That’s a fact that you have to take into account when you want to think about how belief change works, but that isn’t in the mental model that assumes that people simply do free will decisions to change their beliefs.
“Think nothing for 5 minutes” is not like “raise my right arm.” It is like “hold my arm so still for 5 minutes than a careful observer will not even notice a jitter.” It is unlikely that anyone can do either of those things on demand. But I can refrain from most complete thoughts for 5 minutes, and from large motions of my arm. My control over my thoughts is actually very similar to my control over my arm. You find dissimilarity because you are comparing the wrong things.
So, you pick an example with no emotional valence. But let’s suppose instead that I have reason to believe that I’m perfectly safe, but find myself believing that someone is going to kill me in my sleep. This would not stop me from telling people I’m perfectly safe, or from giving the reasons that show I’m perfectly safe, or from accepting a similar $100 bet. It might, however, prevent me from getting a good night’s sleep.
Is that not a thing that matters about the belief that I’m safe?
I expected ChristianKI might say that you would be lying, if you tell people that the sky is blue in my hypothetical situation. He hasn’t responded, so maybe he does not think this. In any case, I would deny that it is a lie to tell people something that you know you have good reasons to believe, however you feel about it when you do it.
In any case, when I first made the claim, I said that we have direct write access to almost everything important about a belief, not everything important simply. And in particular, we don’t have have write access to how we feel about them. I agree that could be something important, but it is relatively minor compared to all sorts of other things that result from beliefs, like external relationships and real world actions.
In theory we could describe this same situation in two different ways: by saying, “I can’t control my beliefs,” and then we would be implicitly identifying our beliefs with those feelings. Or by saying, “I can control my beliefs,” and then we would be implicitly identifying our beliefs with a pattern of speaking, acting, and consciously controlled thinking. It is pointless to ask which of these is true: either could be true, if that’s what we meant by a belief. The question is which is a better idea for practical purposes. And it seems to me better to say, “I can control my beliefs,” because saying the other thing tends to make us forget many of our options (for example winning good bets.)
Also, another advantage is that in practice what I am suggesting tends to modify the feelings as well, although indirectly, and not always completely.
You asked what mental operation I do. In my head, I do say “X is more likely to be true”.
‘Say’ is usually a word that refers to verbal experssion.
Are you saying that you do have “X is more likely to be true” as a voice in your head?
Yes.
I had a discussion with Gilbert a while ago about the meaning of updating in the comments on his post here.