I’ll add that this is a cycle; Stage 5 is Stage 1. People operating in Stage 4 are paying very little attention to objective reality. Accordingly, their objective situation is usually deteriorating; competitors operating at lower levels gradually eat their lunch without them really noticing. The cycle restarts when objective conditions deteriorate to the point that they can no longer be ignored and the complicated games of social signaling are abandoned. To extend Strawperson’s comment:
Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river. Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t want to go (or have other people go) across the river. Level 3: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I’m with the popular kids who are too cool to go across the river. Level 4: “There’s a lion across the river.” = A firm stance against trans-river expansionism focus grouped well with undecided voters in my constituency.
Level 5/Level 1: “There’s a lion right here” = There’s a lion right here (We really should have been paying more attention to the actual lion and focus groups no longer seem important).
I’ll add that this is a cycle; Stage 5 is Stage 1. People operating in Stage 4 are paying very little attention to objective reality. Accordingly, their objective situation is usually deteriorating; competitors operating at lower levels gradually eat their lunch without them really noticing. The cycle restarts when objective conditions deteriorate to the point that they can no longer be ignored and the complicated games of social signaling are abandoned. To extend Strawperson’s comment:
Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river.
Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t want to go (or have other people go) across the river.
Level 3: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I’m with the popular kids who are too cool to go across the river.
Level 4: “There’s a lion across the river.” = A firm stance against trans-river expansionism focus grouped well with undecided voters in my constituency.
Level 5/Level 1: “There’s a lion right here” = There’s a lion right here (We really should have been paying more attention to the actual lion and focus groups no longer seem important).