I’ll add that this is a cycle; Stage 5 is Stage 1. People operating in Stage 4 are paying very little attention to objective reality. Accordingly, their objective situation is usually deteriorating; competitors operating at lower levels gradually eat their lunch without them really noticing. The cycle restarts when objective conditions deteriorate to the point that they can no longer be ignored and the complicated games of social signaling are abandoned. To extend Strawperson’s comment:
Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river. Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t want to go (or have other people go) across the river. Level 3: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I’m with the popular kids who are too cool to go across the river. Level 4: “There’s a lion across the river.” = A firm stance against trans-river expansionism focus grouped well with undecided voters in my constituency.
Level 5/Level 1: “There’s a lion right here” = There’s a lion right here (We really should have been paying more attention to the actual lion and focus groups no longer seem important).
Part of it was working for the US Army during the runup to the Iraq war. Part of it is watching several startups implode from the inside. Part of it is an based on the history of the French and Russian revolutions, among others, where out-of-touch elites’ elaborate status games were permanently ended by homicidal plebs.
I’ll add that this is a cycle; Stage 5 is Stage 1. People operating in Stage 4 are paying very little attention to objective reality. Accordingly, their objective situation is usually deteriorating; competitors operating at lower levels gradually eat their lunch without them really noticing. The cycle restarts when objective conditions deteriorate to the point that they can no longer be ignored and the complicated games of social signaling are abandoned. To extend Strawperson’s comment:
Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across the river.
Level 2: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I don’t want to go (or have other people go) across the river.
Level 3: “There’s a lion across the river.” = I’m with the popular kids who are too cool to go across the river.
Level 4: “There’s a lion across the river.” = A firm stance against trans-river expansionism focus grouped well with undecided voters in my constituency.
Level 5/Level 1: “There’s a lion right here” = There’s a lion right here (We really should have been paying more attention to the actual lion and focus groups no longer seem important).
May I ask what evidence you base this on?
Part of it was working for the US Army during the runup to the Iraq war. Part of it is watching several startups implode from the inside. Part of it is an based on the history of the French and Russian revolutions, among others, where out-of-touch elites’ elaborate status games were permanently ended by homicidal plebs.