A prediction market adds unnecessary complexity to the user experience.
Most users presumably never see the prediction market, they simply vote (or respond with a comment, or whatever). These signals can be used by algorithms and a small number of gamblers in order to place bets on the markets.
most attackers aren’t very sophisticated, I don’t think the raised security concerns are a huge issue.
This is also my intuition for now, but over the very long run I am hoping that similar systems will be used in cases that are radically higher stakes, e.g. for structuring policy discussions that will directly shape major power policies.
I also think that sophisticated manipulation will become cheaper as AI improves, and that there is a significant chance that many existing norms for online discussion will break down significantly over the coming decade or two as sophisticated autonomous participants with manipulative agendas greatly outnumber humans.
This is also my intuition for now, but over the very long run I am hoping that similar systems will be used in cases that are radically higher stakes, e.g. for structuring policy discussions that will directly shape major power policies.
For high stakes situation the task of picking moderators becomes a lot more complex. I don’t think prediction markets help for that purpose.
Most users presumably never see the prediction market, they simply vote (or respond with a comment, or whatever). These signals can be used by algorithms and a small number of gamblers in order to place bets on the markets.
This is also my intuition for now, but over the very long run I am hoping that similar systems will be used in cases that are radically higher stakes, e.g. for structuring policy discussions that will directly shape major power policies.
I also think that sophisticated manipulation will become cheaper as AI improves, and that there is a significant chance that many existing norms for online discussion will break down significantly over the coming decade or two as sophisticated autonomous participants with manipulative agendas greatly outnumber humans.
For high stakes situation the task of picking moderators becomes a lot more complex. I don’t think prediction markets help for that purpose.