You have to lay £1 on heads or tails on a biased coin toss. Your probability is in your mind, and your mind has no information either way. Hence, you lay the pound on either. Hence you assign a 0.5 probability to heads, and also to tails.
If your argument is ‘I don’t mean my personal probability, I mean the actual probability’, abandon all hope. All probability is ‘perceived’. Unless you think you have all the evidence.
You have to lay £1 on heads or tails on a biased coin toss. Your probability is in your mind, and your mind has no information either way. Hence, you lay the pound on either. Hence you assign a 0.5 probability to heads, and also to tails.
If your argument is ‘I don’t mean my personal probability, I mean the actual probability’, abandon all hope. All probability is ‘perceived’. Unless you think you have all the evidence.