Find a way to give it a bigger bite of GDP, and new bureaucrats will arise to seize the money for worthless projects, generating more noise in the journals? We could be in a situation analogous to the situation in some countries where giving money to beggars just reallocates more of the economy to begging without increasing the income of the average beggar.
No doubt some of the marginal money would be wasted, but that’s always true and is true now. Science is and would be worth it even if the haircut was immense, and I don’t see a reason that the additional spending would be that much more wasted.
Also, the begging scenario you describe isn’t particuarly scary. If giving more money to scientists meant there were more scientists each with the same funding levels we have now, that seems like a perfectly fine outcome. If it meant there were more fundraisers seeking money for science and each raised the same quantity of funds, that also seems like a fine outcome.
I’m not really an expert here. It would depend on the field. In a typical field I’m betting that at least 75% of the money is spent on projects of, to put it mildly, such low marginal utility that the time spent reviewing the grant proposal, reviewing the submitted paper, and reading the published paper, is not worth the result.
Are you saying you think the impact of a higher portion of GDP spent on “science” would be negative, more or less neutral, or positive (but with diminishing returns)?
Do you think that a marginal dollar that is allocated to research on, for example, the synthesis of conductive plastics increases or decreases the signal:noise ratio? What fields do you think would have a marginal output of less than $1 of value generated per dollar you invest?
Mostly fields which are producing lots of “statistically significant” results and no universal generalizations (where “This happens to everyone with gene X” is a universal generalization even if not everyone has gene X). Conductive plastics doesn’t sound too bad because you can tell whether or not a plastic conducts pretty clearly.
Find a way to give it a bigger bite of GDP, and new bureaucrats will arise to seize the money for worthless projects, generating more noise in the journals? We could be in a situation analogous to the situation in some countries where giving money to beggars just reallocates more of the economy to begging without increasing the income of the average beggar.
No doubt some of the marginal money would be wasted, but that’s always true and is true now. Science is and would be worth it even if the haircut was immense, and I don’t see a reason that the additional spending would be that much more wasted.
Also, the begging scenario you describe isn’t particuarly scary. If giving more money to scientists meant there were more scientists each with the same funding levels we have now, that seems like a perfectly fine outcome. If it meant there were more fundraisers seeking money for science and each raised the same quantity of funds, that also seems like a fine outcome.
I’m confused a bit. You see existing science funding as being mostly/entirely wasted on worthless projects?
I’m not really an expert here. It would depend on the field. In a typical field I’m betting that at least 75% of the money is spent on projects of, to put it mildly, such low marginal utility that the time spent reviewing the grant proposal, reviewing the submitted paper, and reading the published paper, is not worth the result.
Could you elaborate here?
Are you saying you think the impact of a higher portion of GDP spent on “science” would be negative, more or less neutral, or positive (but with diminishing returns)?
Do you think that a marginal dollar that is allocated to research on, for example, the synthesis of conductive plastics increases or decreases the signal:noise ratio? What fields do you think would have a marginal output of less than $1 of value generated per dollar you invest?
Mostly fields which are producing lots of “statistically significant” results and no universal generalizations (where “This happens to everyone with gene X” is a universal generalization even if not everyone has gene X). Conductive plastics doesn’t sound too bad because you can tell whether or not a plastic conducts pretty clearly.