It’s obviously unclear how space combat/exploration dynamics go, but I think defense dominance (in most respects) is significantly more likely, perhaps like 80%.
My intuitions are kinda ‘acausal decision theory means that speed of light doesn’t buy us much defense dominance’. Even if two civilizations are traveling apart at greater than c, they might still end up in offense-dominated acausal conflict.
When I say space combat / exploration dynamics, I’m not including acausal interactions. I don’t think that locusts are especially a problem for acausal interactions.
why? i think acausal locust (agents who maximise their acasual influence) is more concerning than causal locust (agents who maximise their casual influence).
mostly bc ‘search over all strategies + unconstrained competition’ seems more likely in the acausal landscape than our future lightcone. acausal landscape is bigger, and more likely to be multipolar.
My intuitions are kinda ‘acausal decision theory means that speed of light doesn’t buy us much defense dominance’. Even if two civilizations are traveling apart at greater than c, they might still end up in offense-dominated acausal conflict.
When I say space combat / exploration dynamics, I’m not including acausal interactions. I don’t think that locusts are especially a problem for acausal interactions.
why? i think acausal locust (agents who maximise their acasual influence) is more concerning than causal locust (agents who maximise their casual influence).
mostly bc ‘search over all strategies + unconstrained competition’ seems more likely in the acausal landscape than our future lightcone. acausal landscape is bigger, and more likely to be multipolar.