Good reminder. Note that in many cases, NEITHER option is a guarantee. Gym memberships are famously underused, and it’s not clear whether “pay for a gym membership” actually implies working out. This example is a case of “NOTICE the risks of fake alternatives, which could be either or both, and put in action plans to reconsider on X date”.
In fact, for all of them, the question of “when and how to evaluate the chosen action” resolves the uncertainty. Plans of this kind should actually be thought of as experiment design.
Good point, agreed. If “pay for a gym membership” turns out to be “do nothing and pay $50 a month for it”, then it’s certainly worse than “do nothing at home”.
Good reminder. Note that in many cases, NEITHER option is a guarantee. Gym memberships are famously underused, and it’s not clear whether “pay for a gym membership” actually implies working out. This example is a case of “NOTICE the risks of fake alternatives, which could be either or both, and put in action plans to reconsider on X date”.
In fact, for all of them, the question of “when and how to evaluate the chosen action” resolves the uncertainty. Plans of this kind should actually be thought of as experiment design.
Good point, agreed. If “pay for a gym membership” turns out to be “do nothing and pay $50 a month for it”, then it’s certainly worse than “do nothing at home”.