I really appreciate the clarity of including both the math and the good examples. It may be useful to acknowledge that many of the observation/communication limits are in fact contingent on something unstated. What is it that keeps you from observing another variable or drawing better-fit categories?
but that’s no reason to not aspire to the true precision of the Bayes-structure to whatever extent possible
Which brings us to the actual hard question: to what extent _is it_ possible? A lot of the time, the right answer is to notice that the compromise that’s commonly made is undershooting the precision that you could handle, and determine which of your audience or conversational partners are ahead of or behind you in your modeling of the actual world. In your first example, you can ABSOLUTELY talk about financial emancipation, contract enforcement, or other adult rights that can be applied to some minors. Some things are taboo or sacred and you probably can’t openly talk about them without severely violating norms, but you can still model the details inside your head to avoid truth-deflecting norms/laws.
Picking the right level of detail for the person or group (or internally, topic) you’re dealing with is, IMO, far more important that picking the actual sharp lines to draw on a fuzzy canvas.