The prisoner/bomb analogy is not useful, for the reason that there’s zero chance the prisoner is incorrect. The bomb is definitely there, and it’s just a matter of getting a guard to look, not a complicated multi-step set of actions that may or may not delay a maybe-fictional-or-dud bomb.
I’m deeply suspicious of “we should” (as you acknowledge you are), and I probably won’t put much effort into this, but I want to give you full credit and honor for actual attempts to improve things. The opposite of your apology for unilateral action—you deserve praise for action rather than discussion. All real, action is unilateral to some extent—it cannot start as a full consensus of humanity, and it’s probably not going to get there ever.
Wait, reverse the sequence of my pessimism and my praise. Good job, whether it works or not!
Yes, I should have been more clear that I was addressing people who have very high p(doom). The prisoner/bomb is indeed somewhat of a simplification, but I do think there’s a valid connection in the form of half-heartedly attempting to get the assistance of people more powerful than you and prematurely giving it up as hopeless.
Thank you for your kind words! I was expecting most reactions to be fairly anti-”we should”, but I figured it was worth a try.
The prisoner/bomb analogy is not useful, for the reason that there’s zero chance the prisoner is incorrect. The bomb is definitely there, and it’s just a matter of getting a guard to look, not a complicated multi-step set of actions that may or may not delay a maybe-fictional-or-dud bomb.
I’m deeply suspicious of “we should” (as you acknowledge you are), and I probably won’t put much effort into this, but I want to give you full credit and honor for actual attempts to improve things. The opposite of your apology for unilateral action—you deserve praise for action rather than discussion. All real, action is unilateral to some extent—it cannot start as a full consensus of humanity, and it’s probably not going to get there ever.
Wait, reverse the sequence of my pessimism and my praise. Good job, whether it works or not!
Yes, I should have been more clear that I was addressing people who have very high p(doom). The prisoner/bomb is indeed somewhat of a simplification, but I do think there’s a valid connection in the form of half-heartedly attempting to get the assistance of people more powerful than you and prematurely giving it up as hopeless.
Thank you for your kind words! I was expecting most reactions to be fairly anti-”we should”, but I figured it was worth a try.