If you literally maximize expected number of paperclips, using standard decision theory, you will always pay the casino. To refuse the one shot game, you need to have a nonlinear utility function, or be doing something weird like median outcome maximization.
Choose action A to maximixe m such that P(paperclip count>m|a)=1/2
A well defined rule, that will behave like maximization in a sufficiently vast multiverse.
What do you mean by a sufficiently large multiverse? If your first choice loses many paperclips in 40% of cases and wins’s few in the rest, you would take it and a maximizer wouldn’t.
If you were truly alone in the multiverse, this algorithm would take a bet that had a 51% chance of winning them 1 paperclip, and a 49% chance of loosing 1000000 of them.
If independant versions of this bet are taking place in 3^^^3 parallel universes, it will refuse.
For any finite bet, for all sufficiently large N If the agent is using TDT and is faced with the choice of whether to make this bet in N multiverses, it will behave like an expected utility maximizer.
If you literally maximize expected number of paperclips, using standard decision theory, you will always pay the casino. To refuse the one shot game, you need to have a nonlinear utility function, or be doing something weird like median outcome maximization.
Choose action A to maximixe m such that P(paperclip count>m|a)=1/2
A well defined rule, that will behave like maximization in a sufficiently vast multiverse.
What do you mean by a sufficiently large multiverse? If your first choice loses many paperclips in 40% of cases and wins’s few in the rest, you would take it and a maximizer wouldn’t.
If you were truly alone in the multiverse, this algorithm would take a bet that had a 51% chance of winning them 1 paperclip, and a 49% chance of loosing 1000000 of them.
If independant versions of this bet are taking place in 3^^^3 parallel universes, it will refuse.
For any finite bet, for all sufficiently large N If the agent is using TDT and is faced with the choice of whether to make this bet in N multiverses, it will behave like an expected utility maximizer.