What has come of it? Besides perhaps some fun prediction websites.
fwiw I actually think the state of prediction markets has, at this point, meaningfully improved my decisionmaking. (i.e. during the Ukraine nuclear scare, having explicit prediction markets tracking likelihood of nuclear strike made it a lot easier to set triggers for evacuation plans. And seeing the prediction markets on various AI related capabilities has been helpful for orienting to the world)
fwiw I actually think the state of prediction markets has, at this point, meaningfully improved my decisionmaking. (i.e. during the Ukraine nuclear scare, having explicit prediction markets tracking likelihood of nuclear strike made it a lot easier to set triggers for evacuation plans. And seeing the prediction markets on various AI related capabilities has been helpful for orienting to the world)
This is new info to me, thanks