I interpret that post as “brainwashing usually doesn’t work, and when it does, it usually only works for a limited time”. Which is consistent with the statement that brainwashing sometimes works, and when it works for a limited time, it is sometimes a long time, sometimes on the scale of years.
Yes, if your model was that cults have like 80% success rate, that is not true.
But a cult that would succeed to convert 1% of people they approach, with average retention of 5 years, could still get huge, assuming that they keep approaching lots of people. And during those 5 years, property can be lost and families broken.
(Plus there is the effect that if the cult only gets you, you are free to leave at any moment. If the cult gets your entire family, leaving becomes more difficult, if the cult in such case requires them to break all contact with you.)
There’s an old post by gwern according to which brainwashing doesn’t really exist in the way commonly assumed.
I interpret that post as “brainwashing usually doesn’t work, and when it does, it usually only works for a limited time”. Which is consistent with the statement that brainwashing sometimes works, and when it works for a limited time, it is sometimes a long time, sometimes on the scale of years.
Yes, if your model was that cults have like 80% success rate, that is not true.
But a cult that would succeed to convert 1% of people they approach, with average retention of 5 years, could still get huge, assuming that they keep approaching lots of people. And during those 5 years, property can be lost and families broken.
(Plus there is the effect that if the cult only gets you, you are free to leave at any moment. If the cult gets your entire family, leaving becomes more difficult, if the cult in such case requires them to break all contact with you.)
By the way, I strongly recommend watching Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath. It gives a great “gears model” of how a cult works.