Does that mean that you’d prefer donors invested in VARA or SALP to donate in a future year? I think they’ll probably do better than 25%/year, even with some reasonable risk-adjustments. (Though maybe the calculus changes if you’ve got tons of other prospective donors invested with them.)
(Though maybe the calculus changes if you’ve got tons of other prospective donors invested with them.)
Yeah, I think that’s loading up on risk in a way that I think acquires a pretty substantial adjustment, since I do think that if VARA keeps doing well, then probably we will have an easier time fundraising in the future. Also, we are likely to also invest at least some of our assets ourselves this year maybe even with VARA, or make a similar portfolio ourselves, and so will also have a bunch of direct exposure to these trends.
Also, I have learned to become very hesitant to believe that people will actually donate more if their assets appreciate, so I would not really be able to plan around such expectations in the way I can plan around money in my bank account.
If you yourself can invest in VARA, then for sure you’d prefer to get the money earlier rather than later. Then the question would instead turn into a question about why your discount rate is so low, since you should be able to grow it faster than that. Though sounds like you think that’s explained by risk-aversion + heavy correlations with your other funding streams, which isn’t crazy; I haven’t run any numbers.
I think around 15%/yr? Maybe 20% depending on the details. Definitely not more than 25%.
Does that mean that you’d prefer donors invested in VARA or SALP to donate in a future year? I think they’ll probably do better than 25%/year, even with some reasonable risk-adjustments. (Though maybe the calculus changes if you’ve got tons of other prospective donors invested with them.)
Yeah, I think that’s loading up on risk in a way that I think acquires a pretty substantial adjustment, since I do think that if VARA keeps doing well, then probably we will have an easier time fundraising in the future. Also, we are likely to also invest at least some of our assets ourselves this year maybe even with VARA, or make a similar portfolio ourselves, and so will also have a bunch of direct exposure to these trends.
Also, I have learned to become very hesitant to believe that people will actually donate more if their assets appreciate, so I would not really be able to plan around such expectations in the way I can plan around money in my bank account.
If you yourself can invest in VARA, then for sure you’d prefer to get the money earlier rather than later. Then the question would instead turn into a question about why your discount rate is so low, since you should be able to grow it faster than that. Though sounds like you think that’s explained by risk-aversion + heavy correlations with your other funding streams, which isn’t crazy; I haven’t run any numbers.
Yep, indeed, basically those two things.