I’d be interested in the parts that you felt most improved your calibration. Personally most of what I got from the book was about how effective forecasting tournaments were, what their limits where, and how to run them effectively. I got very little in terms of better calibration.
I didn’t get much in the way which improved my calibration either. I don’t think the most valuable parts of the book are about improving individual calibration directly. I see the book as a guide on how to literally become a superforecaster. Unfortunately that takes so much time for most individuals it’s infeasible, so the book wasn’t written that way. Why I’m uploading parts of *Superforecasting* in the first place is because the ones I’m uploading are the ones which are most relevant for my creation of a system within the rationality/EA communities of a giant forecasting machine. It could include forecasting tournaments. If you what you’re after is improved calibration, maybe I won’t have to talk about the book, because I intend to get more rationalists to learn by just *doing* it, instead of reading.
I’d be interested in the parts that you felt most improved your calibration. Personally most of what I got from the book was about how effective forecasting tournaments were, what their limits where, and how to run them effectively. I got very little in terms of better calibration.
I didn’t get much in the way which improved my calibration either. I don’t think the most valuable parts of the book are about improving individual calibration directly. I see the book as a guide on how to literally become a superforecaster. Unfortunately that takes so much time for most individuals it’s infeasible, so the book wasn’t written that way. Why I’m uploading parts of *Superforecasting* in the first place is because the ones I’m uploading are the ones which are most relevant for my creation of a system within the rationality/EA communities of a giant forecasting machine. It could include forecasting tournaments. If you what you’re after is improved calibration, maybe I won’t have to talk about the book, because I intend to get more rationalists to learn by just *doing* it, instead of reading.