In what way do you consider them to be deluded about brain emulation?
While I agree that in general, organizations have an incentive to doom-monger in order to increase their funding, I’m not so sure this applies to FHI. They’re an academic department associated with a major university. Presumably their funding is more tied to their academic accomplishments, and academics tend to look down on excessive doom-mongering.
My understanding is that Tim thinks de novo AI is very probably very near, leaving little time for brain emulation, and that far more resources will go into de novo AI, or that incremental insights into the brain would enable AI before emulation becomes possible.
On the other hand, FHI folk are less confident that AI theory will cover all the necessary bases in the next couple decades, while neuroimaging continues to advance apace. If neuroimaging at the relevant level of cost and resolution comes quickly while AI theory moves slowly, processing the insights from brain imaging into computer science may take longer than just running an emulation.
In what way do you consider them to be deluded about brain emulation?
While I agree that in general, organizations have an incentive to doom-monger in order to increase their funding, I’m not so sure this applies to FHI. They’re an academic department associated with a major university. Presumably their funding is more tied to their academic accomplishments, and academics tend to look down on excessive doom-mongering.
My understanding is that Tim thinks de novo AI is very probably very near, leaving little time for brain emulation, and that far more resources will go into de novo AI, or that incremental insights into the brain would enable AI before emulation becomes possible.
On the other hand, FHI folk are less confident that AI theory will cover all the necessary bases in the next couple decades, while neuroimaging continues to advance apace. If neuroimaging at the relevant level of cost and resolution comes quickly while AI theory moves slowly, processing the insights from brain imaging into computer science may take longer than just running an emulation.