Research engineers I talk to already report >3x speedups from AI assistants
Huh, I would be extremely surprised by this number. I program most days, in domains where AI assistance is particularly useful (frontend programming with relatively high churn), and I am definitely not anywhere near 3x total speedup. Maybe a 1.5x, maybe a 2x on good weeks, but definitely not a 3x. A >3x in any domain would be surprising, and my guess is generalization for research engineer code (as opposed to churn-heavy frontend development) is less.
I think my front-end productivity might be up 3x? A shoggoth helped me building a stripe shop and do a ton of UI design that I would’ve been hesitant to take on myself (without hiring someone else to work with), as well as quality increase in speed of churning through front-end designs.
(This is going from “wouldn’t take on the project due to low skill” to “can take it on and deliver it in a reasonable amount of time”, which is different from “takes top programmer and speeds them up 3x”.)
Huh, I would be extremely surprised by this number. I program most days, in domains where AI assistance is particularly useful (frontend programming with relatively high churn), and I am definitely not anywhere near 3x total speedup. Maybe a 1.5x, maybe a 2x on good weeks, but definitely not a 3x. A >3x in any domain would be surprising, and my guess is generalization for research engineer code (as opposed to churn-heavy frontend development) is less.
I think my front-end productivity might be up 3x? A shoggoth helped me building a stripe shop and do a ton of UI design that I would’ve been hesitant to take on myself (without hiring someone else to work with), as well as quality increase in speed of churning through front-end designs.
(This is going from “wouldn’t take on the project due to low skill” to “can take it on and deliver it in a reasonable amount of time”, which is different from “takes top programmer and speeds them up 3x”.)