I expect the trend to speed up before 2029 for a few reasons:
AI accelerating AI progress once we reach 10s of hours of time horizon.
The trend might be “inherently” superexponential. It might be that unlocking some planning capability generalizes very well from 1-week to 1-year tasks and we just go through those doublings very quickly.
I expect the trend to speed up before 2029 for a few reasons:
AI accelerating AI progress once we reach 10s of hours of time horizon.
The trend might be “inherently” superexponential. It might be that unlocking some planning capability generalizes very well from 1-week to 1-year tasks and we just go through those doublings very quickly.
Indeed I would argue that the trend pretty much has to be inherently superexponential. My argument is still kinda fuzzy, I’d appreciate help in making it more clear. At some point I’ll find time to try to improve it.