No, at some point you “jump all the way” to AGI, i.e. AI systems that can do any length of task as well as professional humans -- 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, etc.
Isn’t the quadratic cost of context length a constraint here? Naively you’d expect that acting coherently over 100 years would require 10x the context, and therefore 100x the compute/memory, than 10 years.
Humans don’t need 10x more memory per step nor 100x more compute to do a 10-year project than a 1-year project, so this is proof it isn’t a hard constraint. It might need an architecture change but if the Gods of Straight Lines control the trend, AI companies will invent it as part of normal algorithmic progress and we will remain on an exponential / superexponential trend.
Isn’t the quadratic cost of context length a constraint here? Naively you’d expect that acting coherently over 100 years would require 10x the context, and therefore 100x the compute/memory, than 10 years.
Humans don’t need 10x more memory per step nor 100x more compute to do a 10-year project than a 1-year project, so this is proof it isn’t a hard constraint. It might need an architecture change but if the Gods of Straight Lines control the trend, AI companies will invent it as part of normal algorithmic progress and we will remain on an exponential / superexponential trend.