[...] the corresponding winning probability of a player who is exactly one standard deviation better than his opponent. We refer to this probability as p^sd . For comparison, we also provide the winning probablities when a 99% percentile player is matched against a 1% percentile player, which we call p99 1 .
Go & Chess (p^sd=83.3,72.9) are notably above Backgammon (p^sd=53.6%)
See Table 2 in https://www.emilkirkegaard.com/p/skill-vs-luck-in-games for
Go & Chess (p^sd=83.3,72.9) are notably above Backgammon (p^sd=53.6%)
Oh that’s cool—nice that someone’s run the numbers on this.
I’m actually surprised quite how close-to-50% both backgammon and poker are.