They conclude we could plausibly produce 1.5 million to 3 million humanoid robots per year by 2030 (perhaps up to 10 million if everything goes just right). That’s an impressive number, but not remotely enough to put more than a small dent in overall employment.
I think that the cumulative number is enough. From the linked document:
Naively extrapolating these production trends to 2031 suggests a world with ~75 million humanoids, ~24 million quadrupeds, ~312 million drones, and ~593 million wheeled robots. The projections for quadrupeds, drones, and wheeled robots seem plausible if current pilot programs in surveillance, delivery, and logistics prove successful. The humanoid extrapolation is much more speculative, since the current growth regime is probably anomalous.
The labor pool in the usa is 170 million, roughly. Per FRED.
If half of those humanoids are in the usa they would be 18.7% of the combined pool. Maybe less than half will be, but we are the third largest country, not a lot of places can absorb that many millions of workers. China and India can absorb the units, but I wonder if they can afford to buy the robots before usa does.
I also note the calculations assumed no factories would retool to make different types of robots. I assume upgrading from robot arms to humanoids, has already got quite a bit of the supply chain baked in and is easier than a new fan from scratch. But this may be a bad assumption.
There’s very hard to calculate effects in the area. What has me surprised, is that robot arms have been around multiple decades and taken tens of millions of factory jobs. There have been robots that can do similarly specialized tasks, like I saw one doing drywalling back before COVID, but they’ve taken at most hundreds of jobs in almost a decade. Possibly only dozens.
They seem to have the right servos for strength and motion, from the videos and interviews I have seen. That suggests it is a software issue. But every model needs different software. That seems like a small.barrier to current AI coding tools, and a negligible speed bump for future coding tools.
But I don’t have enough info to sort hype from reality. Especially with the Chinese robots.
I only know one thing: these numbers are far too low. They assume factory-style build out. Ukraine is out producing the entirety of Europe with robots made in basements by tons of small companies.
This is going to spread, it is basically how the drug cartels make submarines and fast smuggling ships. So the model is proven in different industries. I expect it will be all over South America, the US, and Australia. And once India gets in on it the numbers will be enormous. I don’t see limits except for raw materials and energy.
I think that the cumulative number is enough. From the linked document:
The labor pool in the usa is 170 million, roughly. Per FRED.
If half of those humanoids are in the usa they would be 18.7% of the combined pool. Maybe less than half will be, but we are the third largest country, not a lot of places can absorb that many millions of workers. China and India can absorb the units, but I wonder if they can afford to buy the robots before usa does.
I also note the calculations assumed no factories would retool to make different types of robots. I assume upgrading from robot arms to humanoids, has already got quite a bit of the supply chain baked in and is easier than a new fan from scratch. But this may be a bad assumption.
Good catch—I think you’re right about the total pool.
Thinking about it further, I’m very unsure about three things:
How soon will new robots be good enough to meaningfully replace human workers?
Will that capability retrofit into some older robots because it’s largely software?
Will early human-comparable robots replace humans, augment them, or do entirely new jobs?
There’s very hard to calculate effects in the area. What has me surprised, is that robot arms have been around multiple decades and taken tens of millions of factory jobs. There have been robots that can do similarly specialized tasks, like I saw one doing drywalling back before COVID, but they’ve taken at most hundreds of jobs in almost a decade. Possibly only dozens.
They seem to have the right servos for strength and motion, from the videos and interviews I have seen. That suggests it is a software issue. But every model needs different software. That seems like a small.barrier to current AI coding tools, and a negligible speed bump for future coding tools.
But I don’t have enough info to sort hype from reality. Especially with the Chinese robots.
I only know one thing: these numbers are far too low. They assume factory-style build out. Ukraine is out producing the entirety of Europe with robots made in basements by tons of small companies.
This is going to spread, it is basically how the drug cartels make submarines and fast smuggling ships. So the model is proven in different industries. I expect it will be all over South America, the US, and Australia. And once India gets in on it the numbers will be enormous. I don’t see limits except for raw materials and energy.