This only lets you get causal probabilities for actions performed by people who opt in. Idk if that’s a problem for futarchy but it makes it more limited than I think we’d like. E.g. I’m worried Apple might sue me for something, so I want a market for P(Apple wins lawsuit | do(they sue me)), and I can’t commit them to following this scheme.
This only lets you get causal probabilities for actions performed by people who opt in. Idk if that’s a problem for futarchy but it makes it more limited than I think we’d like. E.g. I’m worried Apple might sue me for something, so I want a market for P(Apple wins lawsuit | do(they sue me)), and I can’t commit them to following this scheme.