Update: New data has come in! (I got the milestones from Reddit and had Claude make these graphs, so be warned they might be wrong.)
I venture to guess that by the end of 2026, there will be an AI system accessible to members of the public like me, that can build its own scaffold for a typical turn-based video game and (within a month or so) beat said game. So e.g. by the end of the year I should be able to get Claude Code to beat Advance Wars 2 https://kbhgames.com/game/advance-wars-2, perhaps with a few hours of my own time spent going back and forth with it to iterate on scaffolds, and perhaps with a false start or two where it gets stuck partway through the game due to some issue with the memory management system or whatever.
(Come to think of it, this MIGHT be possible today for all I know. Maybe I should check one of these days...)
Update: New data has come in! (I got the milestones from Reddit and had Claude make these graphs, so be warned they might be wrong.)
I venture to guess that by the end of 2026, there will be an AI system accessible to members of the public like me, that can build its own scaffold for a typical turn-based video game and (within a month or so) beat said game. So e.g. by the end of the year I should be able to get Claude Code to beat Advance Wars 2 https://kbhgames.com/game/advance-wars-2, perhaps with a few hours of my own time spent going back and forth with it to iterate on scaffolds, and perhaps with a false start or two where it gets stuck partway through the game due to some issue with the memory management system or whatever.
(Come to think of it, this MIGHT be possible today for all I know. Maybe I should check one of these days...)
Log scale version: