ChatGPT goes on to say that I outperformed Rick (who also made predictions in 2020 in the spreadsheet.) However, looking over the data briefly, I’m not sure I agree with some of the scores, e.g. are there really robotaxis in 20+ cities now? And drone delivery?
Kiwibot has operated delivery robots in Berkeley since 2017, founded in UC Berkeley’s Skydeck incubator. Delivers food within approximately one mile of campus with over 250,000 total deliveries completed.
Googling quickly, there are claims that it has since shut down and also that it was remote-controlled rather than fully autonomous. In any case, it’d be pretty niche and clearly only available due to the novelty value.
Robotaxis in 20+ cities was something claude initially thought false and then gpt-5.1 thought it was “borderline true” based on a bunch of baidu deployments. E.g. source. No idea whether that holds up, idk the robotaxi situation in china. (Also that news is slightly after september 22.)
I also think the starcraft one is probably wrong. Looking now, the models seem to be mainly leaning on 2019 cites, which I think weren’t sufficient to show AI consistently beating humans.
ChatGPT goes on to say that I outperformed Rick (who also made predictions in 2020 in the spreadsheet.) However, looking over the data briefly, I’m not sure I agree with some of the scores, e.g. are there really robotaxis in 20+ cities now? And drone delivery?
Yep, resolutions not very reliable.
The drone delivery one was claude claiming:
Googling quickly, there are claims that it has since shut down and also that it was remote-controlled rather than fully autonomous. In any case, it’d be pretty niche and clearly only available due to the novelty value.
Robotaxis in 20+ cities was something claude initially thought false and then gpt-5.1 thought it was “borderline true” based on a bunch of baidu deployments. E.g. source. No idea whether that holds up, idk the robotaxi situation in china. (Also that news is slightly after september 22.)
I also think the starcraft one is probably wrong. Looking now, the models seem to be mainly leaning on 2019 cites, which I think weren’t sufficient to show AI consistently beating humans.