Re: all markets opening at 50%: I don’t know the details but my understanding is that this is a solved problem? Basically, the creator of a market can subsidize the market (perhaps by opening it at 50% and then spending a fixed pot of money buying/selling to try to get the price to stay at 50%? Again I don’t know how it works but it seems to work fine on Manifold)
Re: each model trading on each market: There are different ways to set this up, I don’t think the details matter. Probably it’s best to have a market, and then allow a blooming diversity of approaches all to participate in the market. Some AI traders might be a script that spins up an agent for each market every week for one hour; others might be a single agent that runs continuously and browses over all the markets deciding which to engage in. The reward functions could be experimented with too; there are loads of variants on the basic idea of reinforcing success.
Re: Clean mechanics: Idk, maybe. Let a thousand flowers bloom, all of the above should be tried. I kinda suspect that arbitrage and inefficiency detection are valid ways to contribute though & it’s OK if the AIs are motivated to do those things?
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Re: all markets opening at 50%: I don’t know the details but my understanding is that this is a solved problem? Basically, the creator of a market can subsidize the market (perhaps by opening it at 50% and then spending a fixed pot of money buying/selling to try to get the price to stay at 50%? Again I don’t know how it works but it seems to work fine on Manifold)
Re: each model trading on each market: There are different ways to set this up, I don’t think the details matter. Probably it’s best to have a market, and then allow a blooming diversity of approaches all to participate in the market. Some AI traders might be a script that spins up an agent for each market every week for one hour; others might be a single agent that runs continuously and browses over all the markets deciding which to engage in. The reward functions could be experimented with too; there are loads of variants on the basic idea of reinforcing success.
Re: Clean mechanics: Idk, maybe. Let a thousand flowers bloom, all of the above should be tried. I kinda suspect that arbitrage and inefficiency detection are valid ways to contribute though & it’s OK if the AIs are motivated to do those things?