ChatGPT suggests China → US: about $6.5 per kg : US → China (backhaul): about $1.2 per kg. That means a roundtrip of 1kg is a bit less than $4. Of that around a fourth is fuel prices, so you have around $1 fuel prices per kg.
Starship on the other hand needs around $1000k in fuel to transport 150kg mean $6.6 per kg. Even if you double the efficiency you still won’t reach the same numbers.
When it comes to non-fuel costs, I would not expect them to be much cheaper. Especially when we talk about prices billed to customers.
The airplane market is very competitive with low profit margins that regularly make airlines go bankrupt so that they need to be bailed out. SpaceX will likely target higher profit margins and I don’t see a market with airplane like competition in 2035.
ChatGPT suggests China → US: about $6.5 per kg : US → China (backhaul): about $1.2 per kg. That means a roundtrip of 1kg is a bit less than $4. Of that around a fourth is fuel prices, so you have around $1 fuel prices per kg.
Starship on the other hand needs around $1000k in fuel to transport 150kg mean $6.6 per kg. Even if you double the efficiency you still won’t reach the same numbers.
When it comes to non-fuel costs, I would not expect them to be much cheaper. Especially when we talk about prices billed to customers.
The airplane market is very competitive with low profit margins that regularly make airlines go bankrupt so that they need to be bailed out. SpaceX will likely target higher profit margins and I don’t see a market with airplane like competition in 2035.