I’ve always admired how well you use explicit models. In the course of my forecasting, I’ve found that I have to deeply trust my intuition (after vacuuming up all the relevant information I can, hiding nothing from myself). When my intuition fails, I don’t double down, but I also don’t wave the white flag and cast my intuition aside. I sit with the error until I feel like my intuition has updated. Then I make that mistake just a little bit less, having fed the black box that knows things I know not how.
Explicit modeling is one of many available starting points (one which I don’t use very often or very well, myself), and my intuition does with a model’s output what it does with all the other information it receives: into the box it goes, intuitively weighted on every likelihood parameter.
I’ve always admired how well you use explicit models. In the course of my forecasting, I’ve found that I have to deeply trust my intuition (after vacuuming up all the relevant information I can, hiding nothing from myself). When my intuition fails, I don’t double down, but I also don’t wave the white flag and cast my intuition aside. I sit with the error until I feel like my intuition has updated. Then I make that mistake just a little bit less, having fed the black box that knows things I know not how.
Explicit modeling is one of many available starting points (one which I don’t use very often or very well, myself), and my intuition does with a model’s output what it does with all the other information it receives: into the box it goes, intuitively weighted on every likelihood parameter.
There’s a great thread here of forecasting tips from several veterans and pros: https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43895/forecasting-tips-tricks-lessons-learned/