The idea is that this basically slows the speed of AI takeoff by 10x
I think the slowdown is less than 10x because the serial speed of AI researchers will also probably be a limiting factor in some cases. 10x more compute gets you 10x more experiments and 10x more parallel researchers, but doesn’t get you 10x faster AIs. Maybe I think you get an 8x slowdown (edit: as in, 8x slowdown in the rate of research progress around superhuman AI researcher level averaged over some period), but considerably less than this is plausible.
The true slowdown in the world where this happens is probably greater, because it’d be taboo to race ahead in nations that went to such lengths to slow down.
Minor point:
I think the slowdown is less than 10x because the serial speed of AI researchers will also probably be a limiting factor in some cases. 10x more compute gets you 10x more experiments and 10x more parallel researchers, but doesn’t get you 10x faster AIs. Maybe I think you get an 8x slowdown (edit: as in, 8x slowdown in the rate of research progress around superhuman AI researcher level averaged over some period), but considerably less than this is plausible.
The true slowdown in the world where this happens is probably greater, because it’d be taboo to race ahead in nations that went to such lengths to slow down.
In some cases, sure. Especially perhaps once you are in the vastly superintelligent regime.