This is relatively hopeful in that after step 1 and 2, assuming continued scaling, we have a superintelligent being that wants to (harmlessly, honestly, etc) help us and can be freely duplicated. So we “just” need to change steps 3-5 to have a good outcome.
Indeed, I think the picture I’m painting here is more optimistic than some would be, and definitely more optimistic than the situation was looking in 2018 or so. Imagine if we were getting AGI by training a raw neural net in some giant minecraft-like virtual evolution red-in-tooth-and-claw video game, and then gradually feeding it more and more minigames until it generalized to playing arbitrary games at superhuman level on the first try, and then we took it into the real world and started teaching it English and training it to complete tasks for users...
This is relatively hopeful in that after step 1 and 2, assuming continued scaling, we have a superintelligent being that wants to (harmlessly, honestly, etc) help us and can be freely duplicated. So we “just” need to change steps 3-5 to have a good outcome.
Indeed, I think the picture I’m painting here is more optimistic than some would be, and definitely more optimistic than the situation was looking in 2018 or so. Imagine if we were getting AGI by training a raw neural net in some giant minecraft-like virtual evolution red-in-tooth-and-claw video game, and then gradually feeding it more and more minigames until it generalized to playing arbitrary games at superhuman level on the first try, and then we took it into the real world and started teaching it English and training it to complete tasks for users...