If there is an undiscovered architecture / learning algorithm that is multiple orders of magnitude more data-efficient than transformers, then as far as I can tell, the entire R&D process of superintelligence could go like this:
Someone has a fundamental insight
They run a small experiment and it works
They run a larger experiment and it still works
The company does a full-size training run
And that’s it. Maybe the resulting system is missing some memory components or real-time learning or something, but then it can go and build the general superintelligence on its own over the weekend.
As far as I can tell, there is nothing preventing this from happening today, and the takeoff looks even harder in 2030 and beyond, barring a coordinated effort to prevent further AI R&D.
Am I missing something that makes this implausible?
If there is an undiscovered architecture / learning algorithm that is multiple orders of magnitude more data-efficient than transformers, then as far as I can tell, the entire R&D process of superintelligence could go like this:
Someone has a fundamental insight
They run a small experiment and it works
They run a larger experiment and it still works
The company does a full-size training run
And that’s it. Maybe the resulting system is missing some memory components or real-time learning or something, but then it can go and build the general superintelligence on its own over the weekend.
As far as I can tell, there is nothing preventing this from happening today, and the takeoff looks even harder in 2030 and beyond, barring a coordinated effort to prevent further AI R&D.
Am I missing something that makes this implausible?