Isn’t this how prediction markets are supposed to work? The LessWrong team is effectively paying you a small amount of (fake) money to improve the predictions. Seems win/win to me.
(I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with the post though, your strategy seems good)
Yep, the team is paying for improved predictions. When I mentioned I was writing this post actually one of them said they’d appreciate me making it, I assume because more people trying this strategy makes it more accurate!
My thesis here isn’t “That’s because the LW team is making a mistake.” My thesis is “Hey, anyone else want some of this free mana?”
Isn’t this how prediction markets are supposed to work? The LessWrong team is effectively paying you a small amount of (fake) money to improve the predictions. Seems win/win to me.
(I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with the post though, your strategy seems good)
Yep, the team is paying for improved predictions. When I mentioned I was writing this post actually one of them said they’d appreciate me making it, I assume because more people trying this strategy makes it more accurate!
My thesis here isn’t “That’s because the LW team is making a mistake.” My thesis is “Hey, anyone else want some of this free mana?”
Well, that plus a small motive of “I think I’m better at it than you all are, anyone want to come give me some of your mana too?”