In this case, I’m mildly skeptical, because probability before Laplace bore a lot less resemblance to today’s probability IIUC (though I have not personally read source texts, so don’t update too hard on my understanding). Bayes did discover the theorem, but I don’t know if he conceptually thought of it like we do today or would have used it like we do today; I view that as largely coming from Laplace. On the flip side, that means Laplace’ work on probability theory was maybe highly counterfactual.
In this case, I’m mildly skeptical, because probability before Laplace bore a lot less resemblance to today’s probability IIUC (though I have not personally read source texts, so don’t update too hard on my understanding). Bayes did discover the theorem, but I don’t know if he conceptually thought of it like we do today or would have used it like we do today; I view that as largely coming from Laplace. On the flip side, that means Laplace’ work on probability theory was maybe highly counterfactual.