I can easily imagine (but I am not an expert, so my imagination is less constrained by reality) that the jump from current LLMs to a superintelligence could be very small. Like, maybe we are already 99% there and there are just some small details missing… such as keeping the LLMs running constantly in a loop (so they keep thinking even when no one asks them), adding an API that lets them form long-term memories (longer than the context window), designing a prompt that lets them use this effectively, and maybe adding some monitoring system that detects when they go crazy and resets them (restarts the context window, keeps the long-term memory).
This way, the LLM wouldn’t get smarter overnight, but it could get agenty overnight. It could start working on its goals, tirelessly, maybe very quickly.
I can easily imagine (but I am not an expert, so my imagination is less constrained by reality) that the jump from current LLMs to a superintelligence could be very small
The wider argument requires it to be highly probable, not just possible.
Like, maybe we are already 99% there and there are just some small details missing… such as keeping the LLMs running constantly in a loop (so they keep thinking even when no one asks them), adding an API that lets them form long-term memories (longer than the context window), designing a prompt that lets them use this effectively,
Being able to see, being able to drill down to letters...well, snark aside, I do think there is low hanging fruit in current models … but the full doom scenario isn’t going happen in the very near term, because they still need humans to maintain their data centres.
I can easily imagine (but I am not an expert, so my imagination is less constrained by reality) that the jump from current LLMs to a superintelligence could be very small. Like, maybe we are already 99% there and there are just some small details missing… such as keeping the LLMs running constantly in a loop (so they keep thinking even when no one asks them), adding an API that lets them form long-term memories (longer than the context window), designing a prompt that lets them use this effectively, and maybe adding some monitoring system that detects when they go crazy and resets them (restarts the context window, keeps the long-term memory).
This way, the LLM wouldn’t get smarter overnight, but it could get agenty overnight. It could start working on its goals, tirelessly, maybe very quickly.
The wider argument requires it to be highly probable, not just possible.
Being able to see, being able to drill down to letters...well, snark aside, I do think there is low hanging fruit in current models … but the full doom scenario isn’t going happen in the very near term, because they still need humans to maintain their data centres.
Where does it get them from?