The 9 provinces in the dataset have the following adjacency graph: 8 of the 9 provinces are arranged in a loop: Britannia <-> Hispania <-> Italia <-> Grecia <-> Anatolia <-> Parthia <-> Scythia <-> Scandinavia <-> Britannia
The last province, Germania, is adjacent to Italia and Scandinavia.
Plague occurs in epidemics of one or more instances of plague. The epidemic usually originates in a single province, but sometimes in multiple. Each year, any provinces adjacent to a province with plague in the previous year have a fairly high chance of getting plague. A province is immune to plague in the 5 years following an instance of plague.
In some cases, a province that is not adjacent (according to my graph described above) to a province that has plague gets plague during an epidemic. This is sufficiently rare that I am assuming that this is due to independent originations rather than due to additional connections on the graph. I can’t tell from the dataset if there is any separate rule (beyond the 5 year immunity rule) preventing a province from receiving plague twice from the same origination. There is an apparent case of this in the dataset, but that is sufficiently rare that it could be due to an independent origination that happened to occur adjacent to a plague province.
Plague seems to have some association with Earthquakes and Black Doves (todo: investigate this).
In the previous year, a Plague started in Anatolia. This makes plague protection in the adjacent province of Grecia look prudent this year.
There were also Earthquakes in Britannia, Italia and Parthia, as well as the black doves (everywhere except Germania) as mentioned in the problem description. Todo: investigate if this makes independent plague originations look likely enough to get plague protection for other provinces than Grecia. On average given base rates, plague prevention is not particularly cost effective.
Miscellaneous other observations:
Pillaging follows the same adjacency graph as plague (pillaging a target empire pillages the province of the target that the pillaging empire is adjacent to, which is always unique). All empire pairs except Britain/Persia can pillage each other.
Pillaging an empire (afflicting target province, from “jump-off” province in pillaging empire adjacent to target province) seems to be associated with:
an increased chance of a two-headed baby the same year in the jump-off province
an increased chance of fire the next year in the jump-off province.
A two headed baby is also associated with fire in the same province the next year (todo—untangle which aspects of this triangle are primary)
Wolves howling at the sun is also associated with fire in the next year in the same province.
Note, Anatolia was pillaged by Romans last year. So, there may be an increased chance of fire in Grecia this year.
Famine is associated with Earthquake or Fire in the previous year. There was no disaster however before the Famine in Italia which occurred last year. There was an earthquake in Italia last year, making famine relief there potentially more attractive.
Geese Flying Backwards is associated with increased chance of Famine in the same province in the next year. (Note: this was observed last year in Hispania).
So, initially at least, Famine relief in Italia and Hispania and Fire protection in Grecia look like possible choices, along with plague prevention in Grecia.
Thanks for setting up the problem aphyer.
Some observations on plague:
The 9 provinces in the dataset have the following adjacency graph:
8 of the 9 provinces are arranged in a loop:
Britannia <-> Hispania <-> Italia <-> Grecia <-> Anatolia <-> Parthia <-> Scythia <-> Scandinavia <-> Britannia
The last province, Germania, is adjacent to Italia and Scandinavia.
Plague occurs in epidemics of one or more instances of plague. The epidemic usually originates in a single province, but sometimes in multiple. Each year, any provinces adjacent to a province with plague in the previous year have a fairly high chance of getting plague. A province is immune to plague in the 5 years following an instance of plague.
In some cases, a province that is not adjacent (according to my graph described above) to a province that has plague gets plague during an epidemic. This is sufficiently rare that I am assuming that this is due to independent originations rather than due to additional connections on the graph. I can’t tell from the dataset if there is any separate rule (beyond the 5 year immunity rule) preventing a province from receiving plague twice from the same origination. There is an apparent case of this in the dataset, but that is sufficiently rare that it could be due to an independent origination that happened to occur adjacent to a plague province.
Plague seems to have some association with Earthquakes and Black Doves (todo: investigate this).
In the previous year, a Plague started in Anatolia. This makes plague protection in the adjacent province of Grecia look prudent this year.
There were also Earthquakes in Britannia, Italia and Parthia, as well as the black doves (everywhere except Germania) as mentioned in the problem description. Todo: investigate if this makes independent plague originations look likely enough to get plague protection for other provinces than Grecia. On average given base rates, plague prevention is not particularly cost effective.
Miscellaneous other observations:
Pillaging follows the same adjacency graph as plague (pillaging a target empire pillages the province of the target that the pillaging empire is adjacent to, which is always unique). All empire pairs except Britain/Persia can pillage each other.
Pillaging an empire (afflicting target province, from “jump-off” province in pillaging empire adjacent to target province) seems to be associated with:
an increased chance of a two-headed baby the same year in the jump-off province
an increased chance of fire the next year in the jump-off province.
A two headed baby is also associated with fire in the same province the next year (todo—untangle which aspects of this triangle are primary)
Wolves howling at the sun is also associated with fire in the next year in the same province.
Note, Anatolia was pillaged by Romans last year. So, there may be an increased chance of fire in Grecia this year.
Famine is associated with Earthquake or Fire in the previous year. There was no disaster however before the Famine in Italia which occurred last year. There was an earthquake in Italia last year, making famine relief there potentially more attractive.
Geese Flying Backwards is associated with increased chance of Famine in the same province in the next year. (Note: this was observed last year in Hispania).
So, initially at least, Famine relief in Italia and Hispania and Fire protection in Grecia look like possible choices, along with plague prevention in Grecia.