it is pretty apparent to me that much less than superintelligence is sufficient to kill us.
That seems incredibly not obvious, and I’d call it a straw man of your position if you hadn’t literally said it.
Do you mean “something less than a very strong superintelligence is sufficient” or do you mean “sufficient to do something that probably could kill us, if humans don’t pay much attention, and not with anything like certainty”?
Is it your position that it is not obvious that a new species can causally drive another species extinct without being orders of magnitude more intelligent? Because the earth has had millions of existence proofs of that in the history of life.
I mean there are paths where non-superintelligence kills us. Like looks plausibly that we will just hand AI control over the military and give it direct access to bio labs.
I don’t know but like it spawns a new pathogen each week, each very contagious and deadly. then it spreads pathogens that cause mass crop death. then come ai drones picking up larger groups of survivors. Then ground robots, small airborne drones. Then climate change +10C. One after the other. Whats impossible here?
Also:
That seems incredibly not obvious, and I’d call it a straw man of your position if you hadn’t literally said it.
Do you mean “something less than a very strong superintelligence is sufficient” or do you mean “sufficient to do something that probably could kill us, if humans don’t pay much attention, and not with anything like certainty”?
Is it your position that it is not obvious that a new species can causally drive another species extinct without being orders of magnitude more intelligent? Because the earth has had millions of existence proofs of that in the history of life.
I mean there are paths where non-superintelligence kills us. Like looks plausibly that we will just hand AI control over the military and give it direct access to bio labs.
I don’t think that either of those guarantees that most of humanity dies, much less everyone. Especially the latter, given what is actually possible.
The study seems to be about what is predicted by experts to be possible, not what is possible afaict?
I don’t know but like it spawns a new pathogen each week, each very contagious and deadly. then it spreads pathogens that cause mass crop death. then come ai drones picking up larger groups of survivors. Then ground robots, small airborne drones. Then climate change +10C. One after the other. Whats impossible here?