https://zoogle.arcadiascience.com/about search for model organisms whose genes are especially good matches for a given human gene after controlling for phylogeny (so it’s not all monkeys all the time)
the frog Xenopus tropicalis seems to make an especially strong showing
I’m really not convinced that public markets do reliably move in the predictable (downward) direction in response to “bad news” (wars, coups, pandemics, etc).
Sometimes subsidies to big companies mask risks/damage to the real economy.
Sometimes the “bad news” was already priced in by the time it happens.
Would be good to research past examples of governments making sharp authoritarian turns and see what happened to markets then.
anecdotally, some professional risk evaluators *have* upgraded their risk estimates for the US recently.
somebody said ChatGPT told her that pain and swelling in her lip indicated a vascular infection… pretty sure that’s crazy talk. vascular infections will have systemic symptoms.
I’m really not convinced that public markets do reliably move in the predictable (downward) direction in response to “bad news” (wars, coups, pandemics, etc).
Also, market movements are hard to detect. How much would Trump violating a court order decrease the total (time-discounted) future value of the US economy? Probably less than 5%? And what is the probability that he violates a court order? Maybe 40%? So the market should move <2%, and evidence about this potential event so far has come in slowly instead of at a single dramatic moment so this <2% drop could have been spread over multiple weeks.
links 02/13/2025: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/02-13-2025
https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/american-strong-gods
this isn’t my perspective at all but it is a solid descriptive account of how people seem to be thinking
https://www.isac.bio/about organization to prevent (cyber)attacks on biotech/pharma facilities
https://pepfarreport.org/ an excellent analysis of the cost-effectiveness of PEPFAR
https://www.kalzumeus.com/2025/02/10/retraction-request-denied/ Patrick McKenzie stands by his “debanking” piece against a crypto bank CEO’s request for him to “retract” it (that word is often a prelude to a libel lawsuit)
https://www.owlposting.com/p/how-do-you-make-a-250x-better-vaccine the story of PopVax, ultra-cheap developed-in-India vaccine
https://zoogle.arcadiascience.com/about search for model organisms whose genes are especially good matches for a given human gene after controlling for phylogeny (so it’s not all monkeys all the time)
the frog Xenopus tropicalis seems to make an especially strong showing
and some people think it should be used more often as a model for human genetic disorders. https://journals.biologists.com/dmm/article/17/5/dmm050754/352283/Modelling-human-genetic-disorders-in-Xenopus
https://www.argmin.net/p/the-department-of-frictionless-reproducibilty “frictionless reproducibility” as a valuable norm in quantitative/data-based research; idea due to David Donoho of compressed sensing fame
https://markusstrasser.org/extracting-knowledge-from-literature.html Markus Strasser on why it’s hard to build a business around extracting knowledge from the biomedical literature
https://calvinmccarter.substack.com/p/the-new-morality-by-paul-elmer-more essay by Paul Elmer More about leftism as a secular version of Christianity, from a conservative perspective. Early 20th century essay—its villain is Jane Addams!
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/the-danger-of-trump-disobeying-court-orders.html Tyler Cowen isn’t worried about Donald Trump violating the Constitution because if there were a real problem markets would move.
I’m really not convinced that public markets do reliably move in the predictable (downward) direction in response to “bad news” (wars, coups, pandemics, etc).
Sometimes subsidies to big companies mask risks/damage to the real economy.
Sometimes the “bad news” was already priced in by the time it happens.
Would be good to research past examples of governments making sharp authoritarian turns and see what happened to markets then.
anecdotally, some professional risk evaluators *have* upgraded their risk estimates for the US recently.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NK1_receptor_antagonist Substance P is involved in fear, rage, and pain; can you treat anxiety or pain disorders by blocking it? ehh, so far we mostly seem to have gotten anti-vomiting meds.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eltoprazine this serotonergic drug was claimed to have a specific effect against aggression; it seems to have failed in trials though.
miniaturized, low-cost mass spectrometry: where are we?
https://www.soci.org/chemistry-and-industry/cni-data/2012/5/mass-spec-for-the-masses in progress as of 2012
https://www.bayspec.com/product-category/mass-spectroscopy/ Bayspec will sell em, but you have to request a quote
https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/industry/092121/nautilus-founder-unspirals-a-new-approach-to-prote Parag Mallick is doing proteomics with a benchtop and algorithms, which doesn’t necessarily mean you can do general-purpose chemical analysis with the same machine
https://www.pharmasalmanac.com/articles/bringing-mass-spectrometry-out-of-the-lab-and-to-the-point-of-need 908 Devices has a portable mass spec that gets around the need for a vacuum by using a “microscale ion trap”
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/398696/degrowth-economy-trump-right-poverty indeed, tariffs are harmful
https://www.unbundle-the-university.com/ Ben Reinhardt’s manifesto on unbundling the university
https://convergentresearch.substack.com/p/how-to-build-essential-technology Adam Marblestone on building scientific technology—FROs, startup-like teams
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_magnetic_resonance_spectroscopy_of_proteins
i still don’t understand how this works but it’s what they use to analyze intrinsically disordered proteins
see also https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jacs.3c11614
https://bindresearch.org/fro/2025/02/11/press.html new FRO for studying intrinsically disordered proteins
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16734424/ transcription factors are overwhelmingly proteins with disordered regions
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha-synuclein alpha-synuclein, the key aggregate protein in Parkinson’s, is an intrinsically disordered proteins
https://stripe.com/guides/atlas/pitching this is sound advice but, like so many things, it only works if you’re, like, super good at your job.
https://www.medstarhealth.org/services/vascular-infections-complications
somebody said ChatGPT told her that pain and swelling in her lip indicated a vascular infection… pretty sure that’s crazy talk. vascular infections will have systemic symptoms.
Also, market movements are hard to detect. How much would Trump violating a court order decrease the total (time-discounted) future value of the US economy? Probably less than 5%? And what is the probability that he violates a court order? Maybe 40%? So the market should move <2%, and evidence about this potential event so far has come in slowly instead of at a single dramatic moment so this <2% drop could have been spread over multiple weeks.