Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality predictions

The re­cent spate of up­dates has re­minded me that while each chap­ter is en­joy­able, the ap­proach­ing end of MoR, as awe­some as it no doubt will be, also means the end of our abil­ity to learn from pre­dict­ing the truth of the MoR-verse and its fu­ture.

With that in mind, I have com­piled a page of pre­dic­tions on sundry top­ics, much like my other page on pre­dic­tions for Neon Ge­n­e­sis Evan­ge­lion; I en­courage peo­ple to sug­gest plau­si­ble pre­dic­tions that I’ve omit­ted, reg­ister their prob­a­bil­ities on Pre­dic­tionBook.com, and come up with their own pre­dic­tions. Then we can all look back when MoR finishes and re­flect on what we (or Eliezer) did poorly or well.

The page is cur­rently up to >182 pre­dic­tions.