Information request: How large are leads in military tech for wars historically? My naive impression was that there was a >20 year lead for, eg, US-Vietnam, USSR-Afghanistan, both the first and second Italy-Ethiopian wars, great emu war etc.
I’m also curious how much of a lead the US currently has over, e.g., other permanent members of the UN Security Council.
The US has gained a lot of experience in asymmetric warfare in the last few decades, but due to the Long Peace no one can be sure of which military technologies actually work well in the context of a symmetric war between major powers; none of it has really been validated. So the “lead” the US has over the rest is somewhat theoretical.
Good question. I think Johnswentworths’ comment is an excellent explanation of why so many high-tech nations have lost to lower-tech insurgencies in recent decades. I think the standard distinction is between “conventional” and “unconventional” warfare. If I were to write a list of near-future military tech focused on unconventional warfare, the sorts of things I would emphasize would be different (e.g. I’d emphasize persuasion tools, command and control, intel, and maybe battle bots.).
I’m not sure the X-year-lead idea is useful for describing vietnam, afghanistan, etc. In those cases at least the insurgency was heavily supported by a technologically advanced superpower. So they were technologically behind in most areas, but in some of the areas that were most important, they were totally up to date. And then also they were a different kind of war entirely, one focused almost entirely on winning hearts and minds rather than on killing and blowing up stuff.
I know less about the Italy-Ethiopia conflicts.
Another thing worth saying is that a 20-year lead today is a much bigger deal than a 20-year lead in, say, 1500. Probably also a bigger deal than a 20-year lead in 1900.
Information request: How large are leads in military tech for wars historically? My naive impression was that there was a >20 year lead for, eg, US-Vietnam, USSR-Afghanistan, both the first and second Italy-Ethiopian wars, great emu war etc.
I’m also curious how much of a lead the US currently has over, e.g., other permanent members of the UN Security Council.
The US has gained a lot of experience in asymmetric warfare in the last few decades, but due to the Long Peace no one can be sure of which military technologies actually work well in the context of a symmetric war between major powers; none of it has really been validated. So the “lead” the US has over the rest is somewhat theoretical.
Good question. I think Johnswentworths’ comment is an excellent explanation of why so many high-tech nations have lost to lower-tech insurgencies in recent decades. I think the standard distinction is between “conventional” and “unconventional” warfare. If I were to write a list of near-future military tech focused on unconventional warfare, the sorts of things I would emphasize would be different (e.g. I’d emphasize persuasion tools, command and control, intel, and maybe battle bots.).
I’m not sure the X-year-lead idea is useful for describing vietnam, afghanistan, etc. In those cases at least the insurgency was heavily supported by a technologically advanced superpower. So they were technologically behind in most areas, but in some of the areas that were most important, they were totally up to date. And then also they were a different kind of war entirely, one focused almost entirely on winning hearts and minds rather than on killing and blowing up stuff.
I know less about the Italy-Ethiopia conflicts.
Another thing worth saying is that a 20-year lead today is a much bigger deal than a 20-year lead in, say, 1500. Probably also a bigger deal than a 20-year lead in 1900.
If you buy into the Great Stagnation theory then a 20-year lead today should be a lesser deal than in 1900.