Amusing exploration, regardless of whether it’s impactful.
My main observation is that this is very dependent on both modeling and specifics of relative loss. Dependent to the point that I trust my un-modeled intuition (leave it open if likely to be under 20 seconds, or under 30 seconds to re-opening (say, when stowing groceries)).
I would upvote if you had some measurements to back the theory—temperature readings at 0, 10s, 20s, etc. at a few points in the fridge.
To your actual question, if you have no idea how long something will take, you are in an impossible situation—you ALWAYS have some distribution you can use, that’s what “prior” means.
Amusing exploration, regardless of whether it’s impactful.
My main observation is that this is very dependent on both modeling and specifics of relative loss. Dependent to the point that I trust my un-modeled intuition (leave it open if likely to be under 20 seconds, or under 30 seconds to re-opening (say, when stowing groceries)).
I would upvote if you had some measurements to back the theory—temperature readings at 0, 10s, 20s, etc. at a few points in the fridge.
To your actual question, if you have no idea how long something will take, you are in an impossible situation—you ALWAYS have some distribution you can use, that’s what “prior” means.