Superintelligent AI researcher → artificial superintelligence: 95 years, explained here. I honestly cannot interpret the argument here (the wording is informal and I find it to be confusing), but it includes components such as “Achieving ASI in all cognitive tasks rather than just AI R&D: About half of an SAR→SIAR jump”.
Sorry for the confusion. Let me try a brief summary: N is the number of cumulative research effort doublings to go from SAR to SIAR, if r, the parameter controlling the number of doublings needed to get a fixed boost in research progress, was held constant.
I break down SIAR->ASI into 2 jumps:
The one from SIAR to an AI that is like an SIAR but with reference to the median and best researchers in the whole field rather than a single company. This might be a big jump because the median researcher in the whole field is much less capable than the median OpenBrain researcher. I estimate that this takes about 0.75N doublings.
The jump from being an ASI in AI research vs. an ASI in all tasks: I estimate that this takes 0.5N doublings.
Adding these gives me 1.25N doublings to get from SIAR to ASI. I then shade this up to a median of 1.5N doublings to account for r decreasing over time.
I’ll try to edit the supplement to make it more clear once I can explain it to you well.
Sorry for the confusion. Let me try a brief summary: N is the number of cumulative research effort doublings to go from SAR to SIAR, if r, the parameter controlling the number of doublings needed to get a fixed boost in research progress, was held constant.
I break down SIAR->ASI into 2 jumps:
The one from SIAR to an AI that is like an SIAR but with reference to the median and best researchers in the whole field rather than a single company. This might be a big jump because the median researcher in the whole field is much less capable than the median OpenBrain researcher. I estimate that this takes about 0.75N doublings.
The jump from being an ASI in AI research vs. an ASI in all tasks: I estimate that this takes 0.5N doublings.
Adding these gives me 1.25N doublings to get from SIAR to ASI. I then shade this up to a median of 1.5N doublings to account for r decreasing over time.
I’ll try to edit the supplement to make it more clear once I can explain it to you well.