What is the profile of acceleration across all tasks relating to AI R&D? What percentage of tasks are getting accelerated by 1.1x, 1.5x, 2x?
A late 2024 n=4 survey of frontier AI researchers estimated a median of a 1.15x AI R&D progress multiplier relative to no post-2022 AIs. I’d like to see bigger surveys here but FWIW my best guess is that we’re already at a ~1.1x progress multiplier.
A late 2024 n=4 survey of frontier AI researchers estimated a median of a 1.15x AI R&D progress multiplier relative to no post-2022 AIs. I’d like to see bigger surveys here but FWIW my best guess is that we’re already at a ~1.1x progress multiplier.