I would be really interested in someone doing an obvious study here, like, “the first time you give Alice a set of choices to elicit a discount schedule, how is that schedule different from the 100th time you give her the same set of choices in the same setting? i.e. does she update to have a tighter implied distribution over hazard rates?” (maybe someone has done this study; if anyone knows about it I’d love a link)
I don’t think I have quite the same sense that the story will have to be in terms like those you’re describing; it seems totally plausible to me that there is a very general / simple / Bayes-compatible story underlying this, since hyperbolic (or at least non-exponential) discounting seems extremely widespread, and neural architecture appears to me to be highly adaptable.
I would be really interested in someone doing an obvious study here, like, “the first time you give Alice a set of choices to elicit a discount schedule, how is that schedule different from the 100th time you give her the same set of choices in the same setting? i.e. does she update to have a tighter implied distribution over hazard rates?” (maybe someone has done this study; if anyone knows about it I’d love a link)
I don’t think I have quite the same sense that the story will have to be in terms like those you’re describing; it seems totally plausible to me that there is a very general / simple / Bayes-compatible story underlying this, since hyperbolic (or at least non-exponential) discounting seems extremely widespread, and neural architecture appears to me to be highly adaptable.