Pretty sure I directly addressed this, as did Eliezer in his thread (and there’s at least one more explanation I didn’t mention, which is that you can target the vulnerable over time instead of giving it to everyone if you’re short). Also pretty sure this isn’t true even if you accept the premise.
The direct address being earlier approval causing more production ramp-up, I’m guessing. The point in parentheses is a good one, though the Other could reply that the resulting murders are a lot fewer when you assume triage in both scenarios. If we can, say, treat a million people out of 10 million cases, 8 million of which are in the next year, then with late approval we can only treat the most at-risk of the latter 8 million, while with early approval we can treat the most at-risk of 10 million. That’s 200000 treatments used on the 90-100 percentile risk bracket instead of the 87.5-90 percentile risk bracket.