It’s probably worth noting that there’s enough additive genetic variance in the human gene pool RIGHT NOW to create a person with a predicted IQ of around 1700.
I’d be surprised if this were true. Can you clarify the calculation behind this estimate?
The example of chickens bred 40 standard deviations away from their wild-type ancestors is impressive, but it’s unclear if this analogy applies directly to IQ in humans. Extrapolating across many standard deviations in quantitative genetics requires strong assumptions about additive genetic variance, gene-environment interactions, and diminishing returns in complex traits. What evidence supports the claim that human IQ, as a polygenic trait, would scale like weight in chickens and not, say, running speed where there are serious biomechanical constraints?
I should probably clarify; it’s not clear that we could create someone with an IQ of 1700 in a meaningful sense. There is that much additive variance, sure. But as you rightly point out, we’re probably going to run into pretty serious constraints before that (size of the birth canal being an obvious one, metabolic constraints being another)
I suspect that to support someone even in the 300 range would require some changes to other aspects of human nature.
The main purpose of making this post was simly to point out that there’s a gigantic amount of potential within the existing human gene pool to modify traits in desirable ways. Enough to go far, far beyond the smartest people that have ever lived. And that if humans decide they want it, this is in fact a viable path towards an incredibly bright almost limitless future that doesn’t require building a (potentially) uncontrollable computer god.
I’d be surprised if this were true. Can you clarify the calculation behind this estimate?
The example of chickens bred 40 standard deviations away from their wild-type ancestors is impressive, but it’s unclear if this analogy applies directly to IQ in humans. Extrapolating across many standard deviations in quantitative genetics requires strong assumptions about additive genetic variance, gene-environment interactions, and diminishing returns in complex traits. What evidence supports the claim that human IQ, as a polygenic trait, would scale like weight in chickens and not, say, running speed where there are serious biomechanical constraints?
I should probably clarify; it’s not clear that we could create someone with an IQ of 1700 in a meaningful sense. There is that much additive variance, sure. But as you rightly point out, we’re probably going to run into pretty serious constraints before that (size of the birth canal being an obvious one, metabolic constraints being another)
I suspect that to support someone even in the 300 range would require some changes to other aspects of human nature.
The main purpose of making this post was simly to point out that there’s a gigantic amount of potential within the existing human gene pool to modify traits in desirable ways. Enough to go far, far beyond the smartest people that have ever lived. And that if humans decide they want it, this is in fact a viable path towards an incredibly bright almost limitless future that doesn’t require building a (potentially) uncontrollable computer god.
See here.